DCA: Oil 2020 to Present

The hardest thing to do is follow your own advice and strategies in the face of extreme fear and uncertainty. At the end of 2019, I had a small position in Occidental Petroleum ($OXY) with a price point under $40. The stock had already been cut in half before I started to buy.

Fast forward a few months and the Covid crash was in. OXY had dropped form $40 down to $10 a share and bounced up to $20 and back below $10 by the end of Halloween 2020. This would have been the time to dollar cost average.

Here’s what an intelligent swing trader would have done. Starting with 100 shares at $40, buy 400 shares at $10, either in March 2020 or November or both. Now you have 500 shares with a total investment of $8,000. Today, that’s worth $13,000. Now, a tidy 62% profit over two years isn’t crypto style winning, but if you can do that every 2 years for the next 20, you’ll be in good shape.

Note to self… follow your own system better.

Notes from my journey. 20+ years analyzing and forecasting complex assets at the highest level of the economy. Today, I run a membership for capitalists.