FDX > $40b

The CEO told CNBC’s Jim Cramer that the economy is likely to enter a worldwide recession. He was one of the first Fortune 100 CEO’s to do so. Fast forward a couple of weeks and today the stock is down 23% — pushing the market cap down to around $40 billion. There’s not enough margin of safety yet considering two things: quarterly earnings are off big and debt is still significant; however, FedEx’s brand is still worth more than $40 billion even if its net debt is north of $31 billion, a massive amount compared to its net earnings of $4 billion. Only time will tell if the value gets cut in half from here, but I think in a decade’s time (barring some really horrific event globally) we’ll see FedEx’s cap back above $100 billion.

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Jonathan Poland

20+ years advising leaders. These are notes from the journey. Learn more @ mrplnd.com